Is this a war strategy? A corporate takeover? No, this is the UIL Realignment, a biennial re-districting of the state by a committee of people who some believe are throwing darts at a map while blindfolded. Predicting the realignment is as easy as forecasting the weather in Texas, and is often just as accurate. My personal experience is that I’ve been predicting the realignment since 1984 and the only constant in that time is that I’ve never been right.
This time around, we’re seeing a true domino theory in that what affects the current District 2-5A (West Texas and the Panhandle) will affect every other district in the state.
The issue began two years ago when the UIL committee decided to combine the Oil Belt district (Odessa, Midland and San Angelo) with the Panhandle district (Amarillo and Lubbock). This pushed Abilene into a district with the western side of the Metroplex, where the Eagles dominated the loop in football.
But now Abilene Cooper is expected to return to 5A after two years in 4A and needs a home somewhere. Either Cooper will join Abilene in the current district or the traditional West Texas district of Midland, Odessa and Abilene will be reformed.
If the UIL decrees that Texas needs an El Paso district, a Panhandle district and a West Texas district, another district in the state would either have to be eliminated or consolidated with someone else. But if Austin decides to keep the status quo, another district can be formed where it’s needed.
Exactly where the 5A cut-off will be has been speculated about for weeks. Most observers expect it to drop in the neighborhood of 2,059 to 2,065, down from the 2,085 we had two years ago. This is going to leave many schools holding their breath as to which side of the line they’ll be on.
Many rumors have been floating around lately, so let’s run through them on a scale of 1-10, one being unlikely and 10 being a guarantee. Don’t look too hard for many (10)s, because nothing is guaranteed with the UIL.
- The six Arlington ISD schools will form a district, either on their own, or with the Grand Prairie schools (0) This will not happen. Seguin turned in a number around 1,800, meaning not only will the Cougars not be coming up this time, but they may have a hard time coming up in 2012.
- The five Arlington ISD schools in Class 5A will remain in the same district they are currently in. (0) There will be quite a shuffle among the Mansfield schools this time around, with Summit expected to drop to Class 4A and Timberview and Legacy moving up to 5A. Exactly where the three Mansfield schools wind up is anyone’s guess.
- The five Arlington ISD schools in 5A will form an eight-team district with Mansfield, Timberview and Legacy. (9) This is the most likely scenario, since it makes the most sense. However, the scenario that makes the most sense rarely comes into play with the UIL. It is possible that the Mansfield schools could be shipped west into the Abilene district, but that could create more questions than answers.
- The five Arlington ISD schools in 5A will form an eight-team district with Grand Prairie, South Grand Prairie and Midlothian. (5) This has been discussed on some internet forums and could happen, but it’s unlikely. Midlothian is the joker in the deck, as the Panthers will be making their first foray into 5A and are looking for a home. The problem with this scenario is that the Grand Prairie schools have been rumored to be in a loop with Duncanville, Cedar Hill, Midlothian and the Irving schools. The other possibility has the East Texas district of the three Mesquite 5A’s, Tyler Lee (John Tyler should drop to 4A) and potentially Longview will be needing one, two or three more schools, and that will likely come from DeSoto, Duncanville, Cedar Hill or Midlothian. Also keep in mind that the Arlington and Grand Prairie schools have not been placed in the same district since the 1974 alignment.
- The five Arlington ISD schools will form a seven-team district with either the Grapevine-Colleyville schools, or Bell and Trinity, or Haltom and Richland. (7) This would depend on the Mansfield schools forming a district along I-20 with Grand Prairie, Duncanville, Cedar Hill and Midlothian. If the Grapevine schools and the HEB schools form a district with Keller and Southlake Carroll (another popular rumor), then the Birdville schools will need to go somewhere.
- Seguin will be in the same district it is currently in. (0) We now know this won’t happen because of the Mansfield situation. Also, Stephenville is expected to drop to Class 3A, where the Yellowjackets can wreak havoc on someone else for two years. Two of the top scenarios have Seguin and Summit going west into the new 8-4A with Crowley, Everman, Joshua and Granbury, or Seguin and Summit moving into the current 6-4A, with Aledo, Azle, Birdville, Boswell, Brewer and Springtown. That is contingent upon Saginaw moving up to 5A and Mineral Wells dropping to 3A, both of which could happen.
- Kennedale will be in a more fan-friendly district. (7) Because the number of Dallas and Fort Worth schools in 3A is expected to increase, it won’t be necessary for Kennedale to drive 60 miles for most of its district games. One projection has the Wildcats joining forces with Fort Worth Poly, Castleberry, Lake Worth, Diamond Hill-Jarvis and Argyle. After two years of trips to Kaufman and Venus, that would be a welcome surprise.
Personally, I believe Arlington’s 5A schools will be joined by the three Mansfield schools. Seguin and Summit will join 6-4A and take their lumps from Aledo and Birdville; and Kennedale will be in the mostly-Tarrant County district mentioned above. But remember, this is the UIL, where, like the Mickey Mouse Club, anything can happen, and it usually does.
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